不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-15
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月15日 上午06:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 5 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月15日 上午06:14 [UTC]
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- 73dc42d6ee81f00e…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshedf24d80 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshfec9417f →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 5 天前
- 快照
- 2d6024f1
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
61.9%→70.3%+8.3pp
觀測YES moved up by 8.3 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
2-Propenoic Acid, 2-Methyl-, Telomer With 1-Dodecanethiol, and 2-Methyloxirane Polymer With Oxirane Monoether With 1,2-Propanediol Mono(2-Methyl-2-Propenoate) in Pesticide Formulations; Exemption From the Requirement for a Tolerance
未發布→已定案
觀測2-Propenoic Acid, 2-Methyl-, Telomer With 1-Dodecanethiol, and 2-Methyloxirane Polymer With Oxirane Monoether With 1,2-Propanediol Mono(2-Methyl-2-Propenoate) in Pesticide Formulations; Exemption From the Requirement for a Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.3 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高5 天前
機率變動
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
66.5%→61.5%-5 個百分點
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