Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 06:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 36 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 06:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 3ab1207ba72881a1…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshcb790642 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh34035997 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 36 hours ago
- Snapshot
- fb2baacb
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→68%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 51.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
48.3%→54.2%+6.0pp
ObservedYES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 51.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 54.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh37 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh37 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh37 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh38 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh38 hours ago
Probability move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
33.5%→27.5%-6 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot