Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- ea416b345743050b…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresheb32bcf2 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh4c996476 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- f96cce66
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
72.5%→61%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
19.5%→8.5%-11pp
ObservedYES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 20.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
Probability move
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
8%→15.5%+7.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot