Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b94140162d3d6545…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh115af526 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe57a76cb →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- cad71a97
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
Observed
YES moved up by 5.3 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
46.5%→18%-28.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 28.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
YES moved down by 22.3 percentage points over 24 hours.
-22.3pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.