Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-08
- Composed
- Aug 8, 2026, 06:25 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 8, 2026, 06:25 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 2044dba526fed577…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 1
- Verified signals
- 2
- Live changes
- 0
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- 58f0c4ca
Lead signal · Expectations
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
42.2%→47.2%· 7d
+5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
Market probability 47% YES.
Analysis
Probability decreased by 5.6pp over 24h.
Assessment
Deterministic pipeline — medium confidence.
Secondary signals
1 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
46.7%→51.7%+5pp
ObservedMarket probability 52% YES.
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot