Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 28 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b999b3fe4e3bb2ed…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshc830c74f →
- 02supersededsection_refreshc3d8d821 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 28 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 4463cc94
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.0%→55.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 39.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
15%→5.5%-9.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 39.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 42.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh29 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 43.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 9.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
32.5%→24%-8.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot