Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-10
- Composed
- Aug 10, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 32 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 10, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 9d1fb026be9de501…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 1
- Verified signals
- 28
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 32 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 1dcb6876
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 10?
15.5%→99.3%· 24h
+83.8pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 83.8 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
1 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 10?
16.5%→100.0%+83.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 10?YES moved up by 83.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh32 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 10?YES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh32 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 10?YES moved up by 82.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh32 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?YES moved up by 53.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?YES moved up by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsExact Score: CF América 3 - 1 Portland Timbers?YES moved up by 92.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 74.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
Probability move
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 10?
YES moved up by 82.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
13.6%→96.2%+82.6 percentage points
+82.6pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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