Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b5c091080ff98757…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh9f33c713 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshb816c770 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 days ago
- Snapshot
- 185c23ad
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Observed
YES moved up by 4.7 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
21.5%→16.5%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
YES moved up by 66.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
+66.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.