不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-12
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月12日 下午11:16 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 19 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月12日 下午11:16 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshc65c087a →
- 02supersededsection_refresh055f198e →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 19 小時前
- 快照
- 6cc3e226
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
21.5%→63.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
27%→19%-8pp
觀測YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 42.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高19 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高19 小時前
預期變化Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高19 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高20 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高20 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高20 小時前
預期變化Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高21 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高21 小時前
機率變動
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
31.5%→24%-7.5 個百分點
-7.5pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
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