Skip to publication

Open SignalPublic Beta

Current Explore Archive Method

checking

Current Explore Archive Method

English 繁體中文

checking

Loading the latest verified snapshot.

Skip to publication

Open SignalPublic Beta

Current Explore Archive Method

operational

Current Explore Archive Method

English 繁體中文

operational

Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 241
Selected events: 146
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 9 lower-value propositions folded away

sportsobserved move

Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $245.1K traded in 24h

leaderClub Bolívar
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-08-11?
53.5%↗ +0.5pp
largest material moveDraw (Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC)
Will Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
26.5%↗ +1pp

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

sportsobserved move

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $45.1K traded in 24h

leaderParis Saint-Germain
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?

55.5%

↗ +1pp

credible challengerDraw (Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa)

Will Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?

24.5%→ 0pp

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 07:00 PM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

sportsobserved move

Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CD Universidad Católica

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $32.7K traded in 24h

leaderCD Universidad Católica
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-08-11?
15.5%↗ +1pp

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC+2 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

sportsobserved move

Manchester United vs. Leeds United

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $23.1K traded in 24h

leaderManchester United
Will Manchester United win on 2026-08-12?
45.5%↘ -1pp

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 06:30 PM UTC+2 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $9.8K traded in 24h

leader29°C
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 12?
76%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.7K traded in 24h

leader34°C
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 12?
55.5%—
credible challenger33°C
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 12?
31%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+9 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in London on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.4K traded in 24h

leader31°C
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 12?
39.5%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.2K traded in 24h

leader35°C
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?
54.5%—

Observed 43 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

sportsnear resolution

Minnesota United FC vs. Atlante FC

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $179.1K traded in 24h

leaderMinnesota United FC
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-11?
48.5%→ 0pp
credible challengerAtlante FC
Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-11?
27%→ 0pp

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC+1 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Munich on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $4.8K traded in 24h

leader30°C
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12?
45%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $4.2K traded in 24h

leader28°C
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 12?
43.5%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

weathernear resolution

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $3.8K traded in 24h

leader36°C
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?
44%—

Observed 39 hours ago · resolves Aug 12, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC+10 source outcomes folded into this event

Polymarket Gamma ↗

← Newer eventsPage 12 of 13More events →

Current record per subject

Recent Signals

24 shown · older snapshots remain in the public ledger

DeskSignalEvent / subjectValid untilUpdated

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran leader end of 2026?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? increased by 1.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? increased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedCrude Oil all time high by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? decreased by 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? increased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? increased by 12.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?Aug 14, 2026, 01:14 PM UTC40 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? decreased by 4.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Aug 14, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC41 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? decreased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedLargest Company end of December 2026?Aug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC42 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 0.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028Aug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC42 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedClacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Aug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC42 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will win the House in 2026?Aug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC42 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? increased by 0.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedNext French Presidential ElectionAug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC42 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Aug 14, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC43 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? decreased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Aug 14, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC43 hours ago

ExpectationsThe YES probability for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.derived observation · verifiedWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Aug 14, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC43 hours ago

Page 1 of 4More Signals →