Canonical expectation · military strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 2
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Volume
- 58.1M
- Liquidity
- 907.4K
- Observed
- 2 hours ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first