Canonical expectation · french election
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Next French Presidential Election
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Apr 30, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 2
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Source ↗The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Volume
- 1.8M
- Liquidity
- 168.3K
- Observed
- 2 hours ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Apr 30, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first