Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 16 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 54fb4e16cd3dfddf…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 1
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 16 hours ago
- Snapshot
- a8336e45
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 11?
54.0%→94%· 24h
+40pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
57.5%→97.0%+39.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 39.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 10?
53.5%→1.8%-51.6pp
ObservedYES moved down by 51.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on August 10?
10.3%→38.2%+27.9pp
ObservedYES moved up by 27.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill XRP dip to $1.00 in August?
↑ upExpectationsWill Solana dip to $75 on August 10?
↓ downExpectationsWill Solana reach $80 in August?
↓ downExpectationsWill Ethereum reach $2,000 August 10-16?
↓ downExpectationsWill Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
↓ downExpectationsWill XRP dip to $1.00 in August?
↑ upExpectationsWill Solana reach $80 in August?
↓ downExpectationsWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 11?YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?YES moved up by 39.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?YES moved up by 38.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?YES moved down by 53.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 11?YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?YES moved up by 38.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh16 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?YES moved down by 54.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh18 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?YES moved up by 38.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh18 hours ago
Probability move
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
YES moved up by 38.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
39.8%→78.6%+38.9 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot