Immutable archive edition

Edition · 2026-08-09

Composed: Aug 9, 2026, 11:14 PM UTC
Last verified update: 41 hours ago

Record class: public permanent
First published: Aug 9, 2026, 11:14 PM UTC
Payload SHA-256: 2ebc3cce934eda69…
Lifecycle: published · 1 events

Active Sections: 2
Verified signals: 31
Live changes: 20
Last material update: 41 hours ago
Snapshot: 403f99e0

Lead signal · Expectations

Track topic →

Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-08-09?

16.5%→100.0%· 24h

7d · 167 source observations · no interpolation

Observed

YES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.

Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 44 hours agoTopic Signal record

Secondary signals

3 Verified

Secondary signal · Rules

Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Helicopters

not published→final

ObservedAirworthiness Directives; Airbus Helicopters is recorded by the Federal Register as final.

Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 6 days agoAging · still validSignal record

Secondary signal · Rules

Magnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; Fisheries Off West Coast States; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Management Plan; Amendment 36; Limited Entry Fixed Gear Follow-On Actions; Correction

not published→final

ObservedMagnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; Fisheries Off West Coast States; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery; Pacific Coast Groundfish Fishery Management Plan; Amendment 36; Limited Entry Fixed Gear Follow-On Actions; Correction is recorded by the Federal Register as final.

Source Commerce Department, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 6 days agoAging · still validSignal record

Secondary signal · Expectations

Will FK Rodina Moskva win on 2026-08-09?

24.7%→100.0%+75.3pp

ObservedYES moved up by 75.2 percentage points over 24 hours.

Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 45 hours agoTopic Signal record

Live signal feed

Most recent first

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 160m?

↓ down

41 hours ago

ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?

↓ down

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?

↓ down

41 hours ago

ExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Rodri join Barcelona?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?

↓ down

41 hours ago

ExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

↓ down

41 hours ago

ExpectationsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

↑ up

41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

↑ up

42 hours ago

ExpectationsWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 160m?

↓ down

42 hours ago

ExpectationsWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?

↓ down

42 hours ago

ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?

↓ down

42 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Rodri join Barcelona?

↑ up

42 hours ago

ExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

↑ up

42 hours ago

ExpectationsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

↑ up

47 hours ago

ExpectationsWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?

↓ down

42 hours ago

ExpectationsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

↑ up

Significant changes

Verified changes impacting monitored signals

TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified

ExpectationsWill Hibernian FC win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill FK Rodina Moskva win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 75.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 9?YES moved up by 72.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Académico de Viseu FC end in a draw?YES moved up by 91.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-09?YES moved down by 89.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Hibernian FC win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh41 hours ago

ExpectationsWill Hibernian FC win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 83.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago

ExpectationsWill AS Monaco win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 81.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago

State transition

Investment Company Governance Technical Amendments

Investment Company Governance Technical Amendments is recorded by the Federal Register as final.

not published
finalAug 6
Investment Company Governance Technical Amendments is recorded by the Federal Register as final.

Source Securities and Exchange CommissionConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 6 days agoAging · still validSignal record

Probability move

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 9?

YES moved up by 72.8 percentage points over 24 hours.

27.0%→99.9%+72.8 percentage points

+72.8pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable

Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 41 hours agoTopic Signal record

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