Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-10
- Composed
- Aug 10, 2026, 12:19 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 28 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 10, 2026, 12:19 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 29866dd8d5b07e88…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 1
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 28 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 2cbb60f1
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
85.5%→33.6%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
61.5%→31.5%-30pp
ObservedYES moved down by 30.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5.8%→1.5%-4.4pp
ObservedYES moved down by 4.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 2 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
23%→60.5%+37.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
↓ downExpectationsWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?YES moved down by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 30.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 10?YES moved up by 80.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 10?YES moved up by 79.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 10?YES moved up by 76.3 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh28 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 10?YES moved up by 89.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 10?YES moved up by 84.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh30 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
54.5%→29.5%-25 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot