Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-10
- Composed
- Aug 10, 2026, 06:22 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 33 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 10, 2026, 06:22 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 9dd3185f5f77308c…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 1
- Verified signals
- 28
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 33 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 151b4169
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?
22.5%→75.5%· 24h
+53pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 53.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
1 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
23%→60.5%+37.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Rodri join Barcelona?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?YES moved up by 53.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?YES moved up by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsExact Score: CF América 3 - 1 Portland Timbers?YES moved up by 92.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 74.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill América de Cali win on 2026-08-08?YES moved up by 60.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsWill FC Cajamarca win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 91.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
ExpectationsWill CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-09?YES moved up by 74.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh36 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 25.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
57.0%→31.5%-25.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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