不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-17
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月17日 下午03:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 3 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月17日 下午03:14 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 7678045d3827f104…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh722a2e2c →
- 02supersededsection_refresh1f63652a →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 3 天前
- 快照
- e5635889
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
39.5%→49%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→49%+9pp
觀測YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
82%→93.5%+11.6pp
觀測YES moved up by 11.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 51.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?YES moved up by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
機率變動
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
42%→48.5%+6.5 個百分點
+6.5pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
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