Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 4f2de09a-b478-4a63-8ef6-18a29238da48
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T15:14:44.240081+00:00 · external market id: 704428 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: c5348427-3d9d-446a-ab10-36c69a60f7a9
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
fad7c109-e9e6-4dcb-99f5-5795bfa94bbbLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.