不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-12
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月12日 上午04:16 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 38 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月12日 上午04:16 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshba31ac80 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh879d57e6 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 38 小時前
- 快照
- c85a05a8
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→72.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
68%→78%+10pp
觀測YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
預期變化Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
↑ 上升重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 56.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高38 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高38 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高38 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
機率變動
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
48.3%→54.9%+6.5 個百分點
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