Canonical expectation · politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 0
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Volume
- 39.6M
- Liquidity
- 699.7K
- Observed
- 1 hour ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first
No verified change Claim has been published for this topic yet.