Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 231
Selected events: 141
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 4 lower-value propositions folded away

iranactive event

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

Related source markets · $18.2K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?
4.1%—
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
1.6%—

politicsactive event

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Related source markets · $5.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityEgypt
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

9.7%

—

highest source probabilitySomaliland

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

17%—

cryptoverified signal

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Related source markets · $521.2K traded in 24h

latest verified signalClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
21%↘ -5.5pp

french electionverified signal

Next French Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $35.8K traded in 24h

leaderMarine Le Pen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
32.9%↗ +2.6pp
credible challengerÉdouard Philippe
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
25.5%→ 0pp

parent for derivativeverified signal

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $33.3K traded in 24h

leaderDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
86.5%↘ -2pp
credible challengerRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
12.5%→ 0pp

laverified signal

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $71.5K traded in 24h

leaderKaren Bass
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
64.5%↗ +1pp
largest material moveNithya Raman
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
35.8%↗ +1.1pp

united statesverified signal

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $18.4K traded in 24h

leaderGavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17.7%↘ -0.1pp
credible challengerJon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15.8%↘ -0.2pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $57.6K traded in 24h

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
35.5%↗ +11pp
largest material move140-159
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
21.5%↗ +13pp

fomcmaterial repricing

Fed Decision in September?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $767.7K traded in 24h

leaderNo change
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
58.5%↘ -2pp
largest material move25 bps increase
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
40.5%↗ +3pp

senate electionsobserved move

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $44.7K traded in 24h

leaderRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
53.5%↘ -1pp
largest material moveDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
46.5%↗ +1pp

california midtermobserved move

California Governor Election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $27.6K traded in 24h

leaderXavier Becerra
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
93.1%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activitySteve Hilton
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7%↗ +0.9pp

uknear resolution

Clacton by-election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $245.9K traded in 24h

leaderNigel Farage
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
99.2%↗ +0.1pp
highest 24h activityCount Binface
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
0.9%↘ -0.1pp

Current record per subject

Recent Signals

5 shown · older snapshots remain in the public ledger

DeskSignalEvent / subjectValid untilUpdated

RulesRevocation of Class E Airspace; Lake Geneva, WI is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

RulesHazardous Materials: Allowing Fireworks Certification Agencies (FCAs) To Approve Professional Fireworks is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

RulesBacillus thuringiensis eCry1Gb.1Ig Protein; Exemption From the Requirement of a Pesticide Tolerance is recorded by the Federal Register as final.source fact · verifiedrules movedOpen3 days ago

ExpectationsProbability of Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations movedOpen4 days ago

ExpectationsProbability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.derived observation · verifiedexpectations movedOpen4 days ago