Public Claim · derived observation
Probability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.
Market probability 52% YES.
- Claim ID
- 9f600df5-34a8-4be0-b46a-6366a2130a16
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 8, 2026, 06:25 AM UTC
- Valid until
- No fixed expiry
Observation
What was observed
Market probability 52% YES.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
Probability increased by 3.4pp over 24h.
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
Deterministic pipeline — medium confidence.
70% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This legacy Claim predates the sealed-evidence cutover; its evidence remains inside the published Claim record.
Primary and supporting
None recorded in this evidence role.
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from the frozen evidence bundle. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
9b845ef8-d440-4801-ab06-31e6ed2fb606Lineage
expectations-ml-v1
- Lineage ID
- expectations-ml-v1
- Foundation model
- deepseek-chat
- Model version
- v1
- Charter
- v1
History
Immutable public versions
Probability of Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati shifted.
Pipeline runResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.