Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 250
Selected events: 151
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 03:18 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 8 lower-value propositions folded away

oilverified signal

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

Related source markets · $23.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
33.5%↗ +7.5pp

iranverified signal

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

Related source markets · $76.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 15
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
15%↗ +7pp
highest 24h activityAugust 31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

28%

↗ +2.5pp

politicsverified signal

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Related source markets · $173.0K traded in 24h

latest verified signalStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
50.5%↗ +4pp

geopoliticsverified signal

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Related source markets · $26.1K traded in 24h

latest verified signalSeptember 30
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
5.5%↘ -3pp

israelverified signal

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Related source markets · $32.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?
3.1%↘ -2.1pp
highest source probabilityDecember 31
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
15.5%↘ -1pp

main electionverified signal

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $42.0K traded in 24h

leaderGadi Eizenkot
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
51.3%↘ -0.8pp
latest verified signalBenjamin Netanyahu
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
31.5%↘ -2pp

middle eastverified signal

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Related source markets · $11.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalDecember 31
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
30%↘ -1.5pp

military strikesverified signal

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Related source markets · $209.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17.5%↗ +1pp

putinobserved move

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Related source markets · $66.4K traded in 24h

largest material moveJune 30, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
11.5%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activityDecember 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
7.5%→ 0pp

chinaobserved move

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Related source markets · $24.5K traded in 24h

largest material moveWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12.5%↗ +1pp

iranian leadership regimeobserved move

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Related source markets · $14.0K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
9.5%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
4.1%↗ +0.3pp