Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 267
Selected events: 156
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 10 lower-value propositions folded away

iranverified signal

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Related source markets · $69.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
34.5%↗ +1pp

iranverified signal

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

Related source markets · $17.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?
0.8%↘ -0.4pp
highest source probabilityDecember 31
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

7.5%

→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Related source markets · $21.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1.2%↘ -0.3pp

iranactive event

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

Related source markets · $18.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?
4.6%—
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
1.6%—

politicsverified signal

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $88.0K traded in 24h

leaderDarline Graham Nordone
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
61.5%↗ +2pp
latest verified signalRalph Norman
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
29.5%↘ -3pp

parent for derivativeverified signal

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $56.4K traded in 24h

leaderDemocratic Party
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
86.5%↘ -2pp
credible challengerRepublican Party
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
12.5%→ 0pp

ukverified signal

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $4.0K traded in 24h

leaderBinface 10–20%
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
49.5%→ 0pp
latest verified signalBinface 20–30%
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
33.5%↗ +1pp

united statesverified signal

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $17.0K traded in 24h

leaderGavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17.5%↘ -0.3pp
credible challengerJon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15.8%↘ -0.2pp

cryptoverified signal

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Related source markets · $882.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $38.2K traded in 24h

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
33.5%↗ +9pp
largest material move140-159
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
21.5%↗ +12pp

fomcmaterial repricing

Fed Decision in September?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $1.5M traded in 24h

leaderNo change
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
58.5%↘ -3pp
credible challenger25 bps increase
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
39.5%↗ +3pp

california midtermobserved move

California Governor Election Winner

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $26.9K traded in 24h

leaderXavier Becerra
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
93.1%↘ -1pp
highest 24h activitySteve Hilton
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7%↗ +0.9pp