Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 267
Selected events: 156
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 10 lower-value propositions folded away

iranverified signal

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

Related source markets · $162.4K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 14
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
94.5%↗ +2pp
highest source probabilityAugust 31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
95.5%↗ +1pp

politicsobserved move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Related source markets · $3.7K traded in 24h

largest material moveDecember 31

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

18%

↘ -0.5pp

oilnear resolution

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Related source markets · $2.6K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityAugust 11
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
88.9%—

iranverified signal

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Related source markets · $116.9K traded in 24h

latest verified signalSeptember 30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
53.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
23.5%↗ +1pp

oilactive event

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Related source markets · $25.1K traded in 24h

highest 24h activitySeptember 30
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
4.6%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representativeAugust 31
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
1.9%—

politicsactive event

Trump out as President before 2027?

Related source markets · $20.2K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityTrump out as President before 2027?
6.5%→ 0pp

iranverified signal

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $26.2K traded in 24h

leaderNo Meeting by September 30
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
46.4%↗ +1.6pp
credible challengerSwitzerland
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
19%↗ +0.5pp

politicsactive event

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Related source markets · $5.8K traded in 24h

highest 24h activityEgypt
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
9.5%—
highest source probabilitySomaliland
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%—

iranverified signal

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Related source markets · $98.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
97%↗ +1.3pp

pop cultureverified signal

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $29.8K traded in 24h

leader<40
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
50.5%↗ +25pp
latest verified signal40-64
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
43.5%↘ -8.5pp

russiaverified signal

Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Related source markets · $155.3K traded in 24h

latest verified signalYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
97.1%↗ +22.1pp

french electionverified signal

Next French Presidential Election

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $41.9K traded in 24h

leaderMarine Le Pen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
32.9%↗ +2.6pp
credible challengerÉdouard Philippe
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
25.5%→ 0pp