Discovery, ranked by signal

Explore Signals and Topics

Markets remain proposition-level public records. Explore groups them into source events and surfaces only the leader, material mover, or credible challenger that explains why the event matters now.

Eligible propositions: 255
Selected events: 147
Recent Signal subjects: 287
Ranked as of: Aug 11, 2026, 02:14 PM UTC

Event-aware expectations

Selected Event Signals

12 shown · 11 lower-value propositions folded away

economyverified signal

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $8.1K traded in 24h

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5%→ 0pp

ecbverified signal

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.7K traded in 24h

leader25 bps increase
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
86.5%—

Polymarket Gamma ↗

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Monthly

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $27.6K traded in 24h

leader≥0.1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
76.5%↗ +14pp
credible challenger0.0%
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
33%↗ +1pp

cpi releasematerial repricing

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Related source markets · $25.4K traded in 24h

largest material moveFed rate hike in 2026?
59.5%↗ +5pp

fedmaterial repricing

Fed rate hike by...?

Related source markets · $20.3K traded in 24h

largest material moveSeptember Meeting
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
41.5%↗ +4pp
highest source probabilityOctober Meeting
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
49.5%—

techobserved move

Largest Company end of August?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $52.0K traded in 24h

leaderNVIDIA
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
91.5%↘ -2pp
ranked representativeApple
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
5.2%↗ +0.7pp

bojobserved move

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $6.1K traded in 24h

leader25 bps increase
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
59%↗ +2pp

rewards 200 4pt5 50active event

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $43.5K traded in 24h

leader0 (0 bps)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
85.5%↘ -0.3pp
ranked representative1 (25 bps)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9.5%→ 0pp

cpimaterial repricing

July Inflation US - Annual

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $17.2K traded in 24h

leader3.4%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
38.5%↗ +1pp
largest material move3.3%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
32.5%↘ -6.5pp

pop culturematerial repricing

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Mutually exclusive outcome slate · $240.5K traded in 24h

leader160-179
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
85.5%↗ +50pp
credible challenger180-199
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
15.5%↘ -38pp

aiverified signal

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

Related source markets · $11.6K traded in 24h

latest verified signalAugust 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
37.7%↘ -16pp
ranked representativeAugust 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
20.5%→ 0pp