Canonical expectation · cpi release
Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 9, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 0
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Source ↗This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Volume
- 7.1M
- Liquidity
- 202.9K
- Observed
- 4 hours ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 9, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first
No verified change Claim has been published for this topic yet.