不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-17
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月17日 上午12:16 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 3 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月17日 上午12:16 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- a6a172afb0c26daa…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh31f33704 →
- 02supersededfreshness_reconcile8d29ab4c →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 3 天前
- 快照
- 81a97371
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
37.0%→96.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
15.5%→4.3%-11.2pp
觀測YES moved down by 11.2 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
47%→13.5%-33.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 33.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 11.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 61.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 11.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 56.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 10.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 天前
機率變動
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
8%→15.5%+7.5 個百分點
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