Canonical expectation · nato
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 0
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Volume
- 1.3M
- Liquidity
- 80.2K
- Observed
- 8 hours ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first
No verified change Claim has been published for this topic yet.