Canonical expectation · openai
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
GPT-6 released by…?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 0
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- Volume
- 192.2K
- Liquidity
- 11.1K
- Observed
- 1 hour ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first
No verified change Claim has been published for this topic yet.