Canonical expectation · iran
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 0
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Source ↗This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
- Volume
- 453.3
- Liquidity
- 12.1K
- Observed
- 5 minutes ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first
No verified change Claim has been published for this topic yet.