Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026? decreased by 2.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026? decreased by 2.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 47c1633c-9350-4361-b105-d613cb1655aa
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 03:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 03:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026? decreased by 2.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T03:16:10.217644+00:00 · external market id: 3076475 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-01T04:00:00+00:00 · source market id: e1bd382d-e5de-419d-89ff-26256cd72b96
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
e89c7056-6199-4d8e-a064-5f897a739f5aLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026? decreased by 2.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.