Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ff988399-d6d9-4213-ae62-0124169fc096
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T11:16:32.012677+00:00 · external market id: 2846075 · resolution deadline at: 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 00214b27-bd31-4cca-ac87-12f86cd19ab1
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
767d4ab5-8686-41af-88f2-999cb614b333Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.