Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- edda2621-3335-4d09-8f4b-db48577100b3
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T00:15:19.339226+00:00 · external market id: 2846074 · resolution deadline at: 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: e5e45ccc-1c31-4bfa-b6de-e265b737434d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
1230210e-f4ac-4414-a391-3cc0b0f5dd87Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? increased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.