Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- eb852b00-35d1-4d6c-ac54-308061450af7
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T07:15:58.454549+00:00 · external market id: 2840115 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 9bfe4c8b-c1f8-4466-9e45-89a6dd6d2106
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
a8cb8af6-0a46-4961-b858-ffe40907f0b0Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? decreased by 1.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.