Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 6421ba89-965a-4aea-a485-5cb379dc13e6
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T23:15:22.856896+00:00 · external market id: 559653 · resolution deadline at: 2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
bf972dc1-6b07-4973-bf8d-0053e27aa975Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? decreased by 1.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.