Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 0c23f0d9-756b-4e7e-949b-073e7a447867
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 07:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 07:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T07:14:27.765684+00:00 · external market id: 2911832 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: ea80cdf2-1f53-48e2-8715-721ae82f7f9d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
c65c0652-7e03-4330-984b-a0bd23ed7b6cLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.