Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? decreased by 6.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? decreased by 6.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 2673051f-bd4e-46c6-ba57-662d3a3197a3
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? decreased by 6.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T14:15:59.717917+00:00 · external market id: 690202 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 2c21fbf4-fa99-4564-ba83-7b413881528f
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
aee7094d-b166-4756-b0d1-3f132d64dd88Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? decreased by 6.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.