Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 08e9dbcd-16f7-459e-a64d-6bf6d28906ef
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T16:21:40.064082+00:00 · external market id: 2587797 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-10T11:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 96d17c27-2095-4503-b8bb-302743246943
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
0d9f1883-c711-43eb-93e7-45a984da198fLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? increased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.