Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 1620644c-f846-4082-a840-f8527c86c532
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 23, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00 · external market id: 2846149 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 982e1e0d-952d-4578-b214-46c0080cad53
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
9c88600f-dd42-4e5d-af40-ada0dcb13938Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? increased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.