Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 28ab5c1c-709f-4386-9dc5-6875314ebc47
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T18:15:15.528032+00:00 · external market id: 2646914 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
3d6b5558-c625-4738-bf55-7965905c0c36Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 0.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.