Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 1834eafb-f6e4-4301-ab4b-6ec042c1aede
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 04:16 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 04:16 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T04:16:03.127463+00:00 · external market id: 2646914 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
b91acae1-c94c-458a-8d54-688a20d7247dLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? increased by 6.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.