Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? decreased by 6.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? decreased by 6.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 29f6a665-eb15-4f2d-a140-7513642ba0a3
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? decreased by 6.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T18:15:33.439763+00:00 · external market id: 2846104 · resolution deadline at: 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 24e4e77c-39d4-4bf5-9dcc-721c9054b314
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
ea3827b0-ec58-44c1-9440-5e579094dd03Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? decreased by 6.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.