Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? increased by 79.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? increased by 79.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 9736941c-3ef0-4431-a80b-1c1ec908ed86
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 17, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 20, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? increased by 79.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-17T20:15:57.714139+00:00 · external market id: 3253021 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-17T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: c59fa44e-e7a8-4e3c-bcd2-de1acff48dc4
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
12009a4e-1955-4adc-8cb2-1fc2f3e37036Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? increased by 79.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.