Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 4441e120-a4aa-4406-8be5-740257f8fee2
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 08:15 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 08:15 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T08:15:06.844619+00:00 · external market id: 3325011 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00 · source market id: a4160e7f-18e4-4f7c-a6c8-560d1e633bcd
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
73acbcd1-9f18-486c-bb89-be9af8dfa4ebLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? decreased by 3.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.