Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 9ccfc0cb-a906-4907-9e4e-1e4207442fcb
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T09:14:52.825705+00:00 · external market id: 3534088 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-12T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: eaccc001-95b7-4941-8f8c-a31db24e914b
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
f93d8c81-97d5-4153-8bd9-934f76d29502Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%? increased by 1.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.