Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 680b60e1-2bf5-48cd-b1cd-1e0133198639
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 11:18 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T11:18:35.079862+00:00 · external market id: 2126460 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: a00bc086-ae0f-493c-82c1-5604f1eadc7d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
dae90cda-aed0-4994-90ab-494501a5d935Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? decreased by 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.