Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- d26ff94b-38d8-4c23-b30d-0ea37705e1e1
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:21 AM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 02:21 AM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T02:21:31.826849+00:00 · external market id: 2925075 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-12T03:59:00+00:00 · source market id: a0c45eb5-a105-414f-a00e-c96545e8107f
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
136dfef1-d08b-438e-a73b-e3bb0ad1e8c2Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.