Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? increased by 2.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? increased by 2.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 9eab5a88-49b9-41c6-afb1-01f7257f1938
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 12, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 15, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? increased by 2.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-12T12:14:56.509644+00:00 · external market id: 559653 · resolution deadline at: 2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
b13fa2f0-e6c8-4b63-bb6d-260d300d2f51Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? increased by 2.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.