Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- a2165be4-b285-4a7e-9ac3-4820cc9fc7ee
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 9, 2026, 03:14 PM UTC
- Valid until
- No fixed expiry
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This legacy Claim predates the sealed-evidence cutover; its evidence remains inside the published Claim record.
Primary and supporting
observation series size: 175 · source market id: 90875dc1-da6d-4521-997c-81997c59248b
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from the frozen evidence bundle. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
d688d3e8-ea85-4208-b613-ce6590b3480fLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.